China's CO2 emissions dipped in 2025 as clean power kept expanding
China's carbon emissions dipped about 0.3% in 2025, extending a 21-month run of flat or falling emissions that, for the first time on record, is not tied to an economic slowdown.
For two decades, the reliable way to make global emissions fall was a recession. China, the world's largest emitter, has just shown another way. Analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, published through Carbon Brief in February 2026, estimates that China's CO2 emissions fell about 0.3% in 2025 compared with 2024, part of a 21-month run of flat or falling emissions that is the first on record not tied to a slowdown in energy demand.
How we know
In the power sector, the engine was a surge in clean electricity. Solar generation rose about 43% in the year, wind about 14% and nuclear about 8%, while coal-fired generation fell 1.9%. The result extends a run in which China's emissions have been flat or falling for 21 months, the first such stretch not tied to an economic shock. The figures are a preliminary estimate rather than the final official inventory.
Why it matters
The margin is thin: much of the 2025 fall came from a 7% drop in cement emissions as construction slowed, while fossil-fuel emissions edged up about 0.1%. Without a 12% rise in emissions from the chemicals sector, the total would have fallen closer to 2%, and emissions sit only slightly below their early-2024 peak. The significance is the decoupling: emissions can fall while the economy still grows. So the honest reading is a fragile, meaningful first, not a confirmed permanent peak.
The margin is small and fragile: without a 12% rise in chemicals-sector emissions the fall would have been nearer 2%, and emissions sit only just below their early-2024 peak. This is a preliminary estimate, not the final inventory, and not a confirmed permanent peak.
How big was the fall?
About 0.3 percent in 2025 compared with 2024, which is small. What makes it notable is that it extends a 21-month run of flat or falling emissions, the first such run not associated with a slowdown in energy demand growth.
What drove it?
Clean generation growing faster than demand. Solar generation rose about 43 percent over the year, wind about 14 percent and nuclear about 8 percent, while coal-fired generation fell 1.9 percent.
Is this China's permanent peak?
Not confirmed. Much of the fall came from a 7 percent drop in cement emissions while fossil-fuel emissions edged up about 0.1 percent, and a 12 percent rise in chemicals-sector emissions offset much of the rest: without it the total would have fallen nearer 2 percent. Emissions sit only slightly below their early-2024 peak, and this is a preliminary estimate.
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