A Lancet analysis found no cervical cancer deaths among women aged 20 to 24 in England, among the generations offered the HPV vaccine at age 12 to 13.
When England began offering the HPV vaccine to girls aged 12 to 13 in 2008, the promise was that it would one day show up as lives not lost. In June 2026, a peer-reviewed analysis in The Lancet reported that it has. Among women aged 20 to 24, a cohort offered the vaccine at age 12 to 13, there were no cervical cancer deaths recorded in England between 2020 and 2024.
How we know
The population-level pattern is consistent. In women aged 25 to 29, cervical cancer mortality fell about 69% against the pre-vaccination trend, and the authors estimate roughly 200 deaths have been prevented across England since the programme began. Coverage in the youngest cohort was close to 90% of girls before the pandemic, which is much of why the effect is so clean. Almost all cervical cancer is caused by persistent infection with certain strains of HPV, and the vaccine blocks those strains before exposure, thinning out cases as each vaccinated cohort reaches the ages when the cancer would normally begin, the pattern now showing up in the data.
Why it matters
Read carefully, this is not the end of cervical cancer. It is early, narrow, and real: a vaccine given to twelve-year-olds is now measurable in deaths that did not happen, even though the authors are careful to say effectiveness against mortality is unlikely to be exactly 100%. That is roughly the best thing a public health programme can hope to become.
The vaccinated cohorts are still young and cervical cancer can appear later in life, so long-term follow-up is needed. Effectiveness against mortality is unlikely to be exactly 100%, older unvaccinated women still die of it, and screening remains essential.
What did the study find?
Among women aged 20 to 24 in England, a group offered the HPV vaccine at age 12 to 13, no cervical cancer deaths were recorded between 2020 and 2024. Cervical cancer mortality in women aged 25 to 29 was about 69 percent lower than would have been expected without vaccination.
Why has it taken until now to show up?
England began offering the vaccine to girls aged 12 to 13 in 2008, and coverage reached close to 90 percent of them before the pandemic. The effect on deaths only becomes measurable once those vaccinated girls reach the ages at which cervical cancer would normally start to appear, which is why the first clear signal is arriving now.
Does this mean cervical cancer is over?
No. These cohorts are still young and cervical cancer can appear later in life, so long-term follow-up is essential. The authors also note that effectiveness against mortality is unlikely to be exactly 100 percent, and that a small number of deaths could have been missed.
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